Pensions still cloud Stockton bankruptcy exit
April 21, 2014 - Calpensions
With a new twist, Stocktonfs plan to leave a huge pension debt untouched was
still an issue last week as the city council, hoping to end a two-year
bankruptcy, approved settlements for 95 percent of the claims.
The settlements include Assured Guaranty and National Public Finance
Guarantee, the main opponents of Stocktonfs eligibility for bankruptcy. The bond
insurers argued that an early plan to cut bond debt, but not pension debt,
treated creditors unfairly.
Now the last major creditor that has not settled, Franklin Bonds, argues
that if Stockton exits bankruptcy without cutting pension debt, the city could
slide back toward insolvency like Vallejo.
A trial is scheduled May 12 if the city and Franklin do not reach an
agreement. While Assured and National recover most if not all of their money
under the exit plan, Franklin issued an unsecured loan and would receive $94,000
for a $37 million debt.
A Wall Street credit rating agency, Moodyfs, said in February that without
pension relief Vallejo, which emerged from bankruptcy in November 2011, and the
two cities currently in bankruptcy, Stockton and San Bernardino, risk returning
to insolvency.
Last month U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Christopher Klein
said he has seen news reports about Vallejofs budget problems and wants
to be sure that if Stockton exits bankruptcy without addressing pensions, the
city will not face a second insolvency.
Not mentioning Vallejo, Klein made a similar remark at a hearing last
November: gIf I thought there was going to have to be another Chapter 9
(bankruptcy) case in 10 years, I probably would not confirm the plan. Ifm not
sure any judge would.h
In January a deputy city manager, Kurt Wilson, was promoted to city manager
to replace the architect of the Stockton bankruptcy, Bob Deis, who retired. Deis
said pensions are needed to be competitive in the job marketplace, particularly
for police.
Vallejo officials said they considered trying to cut pension debt, but did
not after CalPERS threatened a costly legal battle. The Stockton plan eliminates
retiree health care, replacing a $546 million long-term debt with a $5 million
lump-sum payment.
gYou directed us to make sure that if we were going to endure this painful
process of bankruptcy, we were going to do it in a way that meant we would never
come back to bankruptcy,h Wilson told the council last week.
The Stockton exit plan, approved by most of the creditors, shows pension
costs rising from about 10 percent of the general fund to near 20 percent by the
end of the decade, where it remains for another decade before beginning a long
drop.
Thatfs a big bite from the budget, diverting money from services and
programs. A governorfs pension commission report in 2008 said retirement costs
were about 4 percent of most local government general funds.
In San Diego and San Jose, where voters approved sweeping cost-cutting
pension reforms two years ago, retirement costs were taking 20 percent or more
of the general funds.
A chart in Wilsonfs presentation to the council shows that pension costs are
a main driver in projections that the Stockton general fund reserve will stay
above a warning level of 5 percent, before climbing over three decades to the
recommended goal of 17 percent.
A key part of the Stockton exit plan is Measure A, a ¾-cent sales tax
increase approved by voters in November that helps pay for the anti-crime
Marshall Plan and 120 additional police officers.
Vallejo drew attention with a $5.2 million budget gap. But officials
said the the deficit was a gplaceholderh intended to be closed by labor
cuts. The gap was closed last month, mainly through retiree health care cuts
imposed on police and negotiated with managers.
After deep police and firefighter cuts, Vallejo approved a 1-cent sales tax
increase. Now itfs building a reserve and paying down pension and retiree health
care debt. The city made an extra $6.6 million payment to the California Public
Employees Retirement System.
gWe are not on the brink of bankruptcy,h Deborah Lauchner, Vallejo finance
officer, said last month. gWe are not going there.h
Late last month Franklin
filed a report from a turnaround consultant, Charles Moore, that said
Vallejofs failure to reduce pension obligations while in bankruptcy increases
the likelihood of a second bankruptcy.
gThis presents a troubling precedent for the City (Stockton) which, like
Vallejo, proposes to squander the opportunity to restructure pension liability
in its Chapter 9 case,h said Moore.
His report said Stockton pension costs, particularly for police and
firefighters, are gvery high, growing and unpredictable.h Safety rates are
expected to reach 57 percent of pay in 2019, well above the peer average of 45
percent.
Moore said the amount of the Stockton general fund projected to be spent on
pensions, reaching 18 percent in 2018 and remaining at that level for a dozen
years, is gunsustainably high,h nearly double the 9.6 percent Stockton average
from 1999 to 2011.
Replying to Franklinfs expert, Stockton
filed a report early this month from Kim Nicholl of Segal, the
actuarial firm that made projections used in the cityfs plan to exit
bankruptcy.
He said the Franklin report did not disclose that Segal used a more
conservative annual earnings forecast than CalPERS to discount future Stockton
pension debt, 7.25 percent instead of 7.5 percent.
Nicholl said Stockton cut retirement costs by reducing salaries, requiring
employees to contribute 7 to 9 percent of pay toward their pensions and
eliminating retiree health care.
The Franklin report does not explain why the projected Stockton retirement
costs would be gunsustainably high,h said Nicholl, and does not offer any
suggestions for how pension debt could be cut.
He said if Stockton ends or cuts pension contributions, CalPERS might assess
a gmassive termination liabilityh of $1.6 billion that, if not paid by the city,
could severely reduce retiree pensions and leave active employees with no
pension.
Among the problems for Judge Klein if he looks at whether the Stockton exit
plan might lead to a second bankruptcy: Future pension costs, varying with
investment earnings and other factors, are difficult to predict with much
precision.
Federal bankruptcy courts can overturn labor contracts, as happened with an
electrical workers union contract in the Vallejo bankruptcy. But CalPERS argues
that itfs an arm of the state, and a bankruptcy court cannot interfere with
state-local government relationships.
Last week, Wilson said Stockton could emerge from bankruptcy as soon as June
30 if the judge approves the exit plan. If the plan is rejected, he said, the
bankruptcy could be extended another four to six months, delaying an exit until
the end of the year.
Reporter Ed Mendel covered the Capitol in Sacramento for nearly three
decades, most recently for the San Diego Union-Tribune. More stories are at
Calpensions.com. Posted 21 Apr 14